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Rigot & Carter Real Estate Team's Blog

Prices and Interest Rates - How to Balance the Two!!

Bank of America is Keller Williams' new preferred lender!! At one of our team meetings a few weeks ago, we had an interesting conversation about how buyers want to wait until the market hits "bottom" before they buy. The problem is that interest rates are still very favorable, but will probably be rising! As interest rates rise, the price of a home that a buyer can afford decreases. When should you BUY??

Bobby Green with Bank of America explains it well with the following scenario:

The following grid will show you what a 1% increase in interest rate will do to the monthly payment at various loan amounts and how much more home a buyer could have afforded at the lower rate versus the higher rate. A grid of loan amounts is listed below followed by one example of a buyer and seller situation at one particular price point. These figures are based on principal and interest payments on a 30 year fixed rate loan and are rounded figures.

We want to help you sell more homes so call on us and we will be glad to help you explain this to your clients if you would like our help.

Loan Amount Pymnt @ 5.875% Pymnt @ 6.875% Difference in House Price Based on Higher Rate

$150k $889.00 $988.00 $21k *A client could by a home for $21k more at a rate of 5.875%, for the same payment, that they could at 6.875%

$175k $1036.00 $1151.00 $24k

$200k $1183.00 $1313.00 $25k

$225k $1329.00 $1476.00 $28k

$275k $1627.00 $1807.00 $34k

$350k $2072.00 $2301.00 $44k

$425k $2517.00 $2795.00 $53k

$500k $2954.00 $3285.00 $63k

Examples:
Buyer - Buyer wants to buy a home but wants to hold out for the price to drop from $225k to $200k (assume 100% financing for these purposes). If the rate goes up from 5.875% to 6.875% then the client's payment will be the same on the house at $200k at 6.875% as it would have been on $225k at 5.875%. If the seller only came down to $210k and the rate went up 1% while the buyer was waiting then they would have been better off buying at $225k at the lower rate.

Seller- Seller has a home listed with you for $225k and you know they need to reduce it to $200k to sell the home but they want to hold out for a better market, the perfect buyer, etc. If they hold out and the rates went up 1% then their buyer pool goes down significantly as the buyer now has to pay $ 130.00 more per month for the same loan on that home. It also slows the market down as rates go up and that can create more depreciation to overall home values in an area as inventory would potentially increase as well.

NEW LISTING - Concord West of the Ashley (West Ashley)

NEW LISTING - Mira Vista (James Island)

The Carolina Jasmine - February 2008

The Carolina Jasmine - January 2008

The Carolina Jasmine - Jan 2008 p2

Happy Holidays!!

Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a safe, happy, and healthy New Year!

2007 Reindeer Run in Charleston - Sat, Dec 1st

The 17th Annual Reindeer Run is this Saturday, December 1st, 2007 in Downtown Charleston! This is a fun, festive 5k race through the streets of Downtown Charleston and benefits the MUSC Children's Hospital!! Last year, the race raised over $50,000!!

I am a member of the Charitable Society of Charleston, which is the organization that organizes this run each year, and I'm on the Reindeer Run committee. Please register for this race and support this very worthy local hospital!!

For more info and to register for the Reindeer Run, please visit www.ReindeerRun.org!!

For more info on the Charitable Society of Charleston and our mission, please visit www.charitablesociety.org!!

Thanks!

Allison Carter

1st Annual KW Music Fest in Charleston, SC

Hi! We want to invite you to an upcoming event in Charleston!! Our local Keller Williams offices are hosting the 1^st Annual Keller Williams Music Fest. The music fest will be held on Saturday, November 3^rd from 7:00 ? 11:00 p.m. at the Visitor?s Center Bus Shed in Downtown Charleston. There will be food, beverages, and live entertainment. The event will benefit the following organizations in our local community: Hospice of Charleston, Darkness to Light, Dragon Boat Charleston, and East Cooper Habitat for Humanity. Tickets are only $20 and can be purchased online OR thru me and Karen (843.416.2010).

Click on the image/link below for more information and to purchase tickets online. This should be a fun evening, and we?d love for you to join us in supporting such worthy causes!!

What is KW Cares?

KW Cares is a tax exempt 501(c)(3) public charity created to support Keller Williams Realty associates and their families faced with extreme hardship as a result of a sudden emergency. Hardship is defined as a difficult circumstance that a person or family cannot handle without outside help.

This charity is the heart of the Keller Williams Realty culture in action ? finding and serving the higher purpose of business through charitable giving in the communities where our agents live and work.

KW Cares was the brainchild of the agents of Keller Williams Realty and Mo Anderson, CEO of Keller Williams Realty International, took this dream and brought it to fruition. Today it is supported by all KW associates.

KW Cares supports our associates in times of national and personal crisis. KW Cares also benefits other charities that are aligned with the mission and values of Keller Williams Realty and KW Cares.

For more info on KW Cares, visit www.kwcares.org.

Our in-house lender, Justin Whitney with Countrywide, spoke at our Team Meeting yesterday about some important info. He explained that the number of housing starts in Sept was at 1.19 million, which is down from 1.28 million that was expected. Also, the number of building permits issued decreased 7.3%. These numbers are the worst we've seen in 14 years.

Before you start thinking this is bad news (although I'm sure the media will spin it as such), this is actually very positive. This means that the market is beginning to adjust and hopefully the levels of inventory will get back to a manageable level.

Justin also stated that this news benefited the interest rates by .125% to .25%.

It was a fairly quiet week last week with mixed news on the economic front. On the one hand, retail sales were much better than expected while on the other hand the consumer sentiment report was lower than expected. So we are out there buying stuff at a greater than expected pace, but if you ask the general public they don't feel good about the economic outlook. I'm not sure which one is correct and the bond market reacted similarly....we need more information. As a result, the market was flat and we saw little movement in mortgage rates last week.

The bond market is currently trading around the 200 day moving average and as I have mentioned in the past this is either a difficult floor of support or a difficult ceiling of resistance. It will take several consistent reports to move the market away from the 200 day average. Again, poor economic news is generally good for the bond market and in turn, mortgage interest rates. This week we will have reports on Manufacturing, Housing, and Consumer Inflation. None of them are market movers by themselves however, if they are consistent in one direction this week we may see the market move!

Please note our Jumbo rates at the bottom of the page. We have some very aggressive rates!

Last week was as expected with little market moving news until Friday's Jobs Report. So, last month the jobs report came in way below expectations with a loss of 4000 jobs. Additionally, the prior three months were adjusted down giving an average job growth rate for the 4 months of only 33,000 jobs per month.

Well, on Friday the jobs report came out higher than expectations at 110,000 new jobs on expectations of 100,000. Additionally they adjusted last months report up by 93,000 jobs! The Department of Labor needs to get it together. What this did to the market on Friday was create concern about inflation, which is the enemy of the Bond market and Home Loan rates. The result was a .125% rate increase on conforming rates.

Today the Bond Market is taking a break for Columbus Day and will be back at it again on Tuesday.

On Tuesday we will see the minutes from the last Fed Meeting and this will give the Bond market something to chew on as it relates to the Feds current view on inflation and the economy in general. This is the "unplugged" version of the formal statement that's released after the fed meeting.

Technically, Bonds are trading below the 200 day and 25 day moving averages creating difficult levels of resistance. The easy path is for Bonds to worsen so it will be an interesting week.

A relatively calm week last week with interest rates ending where we started the week. In general we continue to have good news relative to inflation with many indicators coming out either below expectations or at expectations. Additionally, on Thursday the auction of $13 Billion in five-year US Treasury's showed strong foreign demand and heavy buying by large institutional investors. When demand is strong, prices move higher; as bond prices move higher, conforming home loan rates improve.

With all of the "Bond friendly" news, we should have seen a slight improvement in interest rates. But, many of the Federal Reserve Presidents spoke on Friday and were perhaps overly vocal about the continuing concern over inflation. The bond market responded and we lost any gains that we may have realized during the week, resulting in no change for the week. Keep in mind that the bond market trade on technical indicators, statistical reports and data, and unfortunately on the emotion of the news.

This week we will have the most important report of this month, which is the Jobs Report. If you recall from prior weeks news letters, last months job report came in with a net loss in jobs for the month and the prior two months were adjusted down dramatically. So on Friday the markets will be poised for that report and it will prove to be a volatile day. If the Jobs Report comes in lower than expectations and there are not significant upward adjustments to prior months, we will probably see interest rates improve slightly. If the opposite happens with the Jobs Report, we may see interest rates worsen.

Technically, Bonds are trading above the 200 day moving average and will probably trade above it all week waiting for the news on Friday. I am recommending that your clients cautiously float along this week.

Forbe's magazine just ranked Sullivan's Island as the 70th most expensive place to live, which was down from 64th on the list last year. The median sales price on Sullivan's Island is $1,195,000. Just last month, the largest sale ever occurred on the island. A businessman from NY purchased a 4,500 sq ft, 6 bedroom, Sullivan's Island home for $4.72 million. This just barely exceeded the prior record of a home that sold for $4.7 million in April 2006. This is the case largely in part because of supply and demand, the town's restrictions on hotels and condominiums, and the limited short-term rental market.

Isle of Palms also made the list at No. 199 with a median sales price of $862,000. Charleston came in at No. 327 with a median sales price of $765,000.

If you'd like more information about real estate on Sullivan's Island, please contact the Rigot & Carter Real Estate Team at 843-416-2010 or RigotCarter@kwcharleston.com. We'd love to help you make Sullivan's Island your home!

Two new hospitals are scheduled to be built in the next few years in the growing Mt Pleasant area. One is the East Cooper Regional Medical Center (ECRMC). This new facility is going to be located across from James B. Edwards Elementary School and near the Mathis Ferry Rd. and Vol Kolnitz Rd intersection. Anticipated completion is January 2010. The contractor for the $160 million hospital project was just recently selected...Robins and Morton, a Birmingham, AL based construction firm. The new facility will have amenities similar to a hotel. Its design features 5 secure levels, all private rooms, family zones (more comfortable than waiting rooms), a beautiful atrium/courtyard, etc. A new senior center will also be built on 3.3 acres of the site, which is expected to open in 2008.

Roper Hospital also is expanding at Carolina Park, a new community located on Hwy 17 North past Hwy 41. This $143 million project will feature 85 new beds. ECRMC must submit a valid construction contract prior to November 31st to begin construction before Roper.

As was predicted, the Fed lowered both the Federal Funds Rate (prime rate) and the Federal Discount Rate last week. Not only did they lower it, but they made a fairly bold first step by dropping it 50 basis points (.5%). Normally we don't see the Fed make just one correction, to do several small adjustments. So it is likely that we may see additional reductions before the end of the year.

So what impact does lowering the Federal Funds Rate have on the economy? First of all it makes it more affordable for banks to lend to each other. That in turn reduces the cost of capital for both the general consumer and for corporations. That prompts both individuals and business to "spend more" and the economy is stimulated! So for the general consumer we will see any interest rates that are tied to the Prime Rate drop correspondingly. That means new car loans, credit card rates, and Home Equity Lines of Credit. So the Feds actions were intended to stimulate the lagging economy and derail a pending recession even if it means creating an inflationary environment.

Last week I mentioned (and in numerous conversations) that I thought we would possibly see a negative impact on mortgage rates as a result of the Fed's rate cut. And that is exactly what has happened, rates got worse by .125%-.25%. What we need to remember is that mortgage rates are tied to bonds, not the prime rate. So how the bond market performs determines how mortgage interest rates will go.

Last week the financial markets rallied on news of the Fed rate cut. That means money from the bond market into the stock market. And correspondingly, the bond market suffered. That in turn meant that mortgage interest rates got worse. Long term, I am anticipating that continued Fed rate cuts will continue to stimulate the economy and pump up inflation......the number one enemy of the bond market and home mortgage rates.

This week we have several economic reports, with a look at Consumer Confidence, New and Existing Home Sales, GDP, Manufacturing, and to top it off on Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (the number 1 barometer of inflation for the Fed).

In light of last week's rate cut, everyone will be reacting in a more pronounced manner to the news as it unfolds. We can only hope that it all reflects a soft inflationary environment and that we see some relief for home loan rates. It could be a vary volatile week.

My bias this week is for locking to cautiously floating. Remember, last week I was recommending locking prior to the Fed meeting and if you did, you are now probably .25% better off!